Invitation to Colleagues in Disaster Prevention Education

Dear Colleagues:

Because you have evidence interest in Doug Copp's education crusade before, and because he is alive and made credible by the UN and Time Magazine, among others - this is a one-time e-mail to see if you can help us to part of the solution.

Please read this WHOLE article from a professional journalist at Time.com
to see where we are at present.

Alas, Copp and the mass media have succeeded in making the issue: "Drop, Cover Hold" vs. "Triangle of Life". The issue MUST be re-formulated in terms of developing the evidence-basis for what to do to prevent earthquake deaths and injures. I am appealing to you to be part of a small group willing to take this on.

Our 10-year strategy of ignoring Doug Copp and hoping he would disappear has failed.
We have under-estimated:
1. the power of viral e-mail, his web-site and persona to broadcast his message, and his ability to turn appealing fragments into a credible story.
2. the hunger for simple solutions to earthquake safety that begin when the shaking starts

We would like to propose the following actions.
#1. We will begin a draft of a Joint Statement to take on the issue of "What to Do When the Shaking Starts".
The focus will be that a) what scientific research to date shows b) the need for further scientific research on the causes of deaths and injuries c) the errors and dangers in Copp's worst advice d) that solutions lie in what to do before the shaking starts. The focus will consider differences in construction type, but it will be international in scope. I would like this to be a group formulation signed by yourselves and other leading, credible and legitimate authorities. IF anyone is on Google Wave and can contribute through that tool, please let us know. Otherwise we may use Google Docs to collaborate.

#2. We would like to field a proposal to design and facilitate field data collection and analysis and reporting of results on
a) the causes of deaths and injuries in the Haiti, Bhuj and Kashmir earthquakes (in comparison to existing literature from California, Turkey, Japan and Italy).
b) investigate Copp's claims and 'evidence'.
c) report this in such a way as to be useful to humanitarian aid agencies, governments, RC/RC societies
d) report this to inform disaster reduction education efforts to protect people from structural and non-structural causes of earthquake deaths and injuries
e) produce at least one short video to disseminate and illustrate the findings.
f) hold a public panel to present the findings in an authoritative manner.
The order of the proposal will be $250,000 and require some in-kind support in Bhuj and Kashmir, and research collaborators in the field in all 3 places.

Please note that the research on the causes of deaths and injuries in the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake funded by AFSC and ARC in Turkey, and the dissemination efforts funded by USAID made an enormous difference in our ability to get legitimate credible public education advice on disaster risk reduction disseminated and acted upon there. Petal's dissertation research 'Evidence-based Public Education for Disaster Prevention' (2009) is available from VDM. Please also take note of: 'Human Casualties in Natural Disasters: Progress in Modelling and Mitigation' (forthcoming) Spence, R.J.S, So. E and Scawthorn, C.. Springer.

IF YOU ARE PREPARED TO ASSIST IN ANY WAY including in modifying and adding to this strategy, please respond to this by e-mail to the address below.
If you are unable to, we will not bother you further - until there is any more to say.

Sincerely,

Marla Petal, Ph.D. & Ilan Kelman, Ph.D.
Co-Directors, Risk RED
Email: riskred@riskred.org

Fasten the Furniture!

Click on this link to watch this Japanese shake table test. It very visually shows the dangers posed by "non-structural elements" (the furnishings and equipment) inside a building. It shows you why you should not be anywhere near a tall or heavy piece of furniture, why it's worth battening everything down, and visual evidence of why we teach people to "drop, cover, and hold on". Thanks to Bogaziçi University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute for the table top model photo. Thanks to SEEDS of India and GeoHazards International for the illustration of "L brackets".

DROP, COVER & HOLD ON from Ana-Marie Jones

Our colleague Ana-Marie Jones, Executive Director, Collaborating Agencies Responding to Disasters has generously allowed me to print her very detailed and helpful elaboration of the "Drop, Cover and Hold On" explanation, that CARD uses in their trainings. If you click on the title of this blog post it will take you to CARD's link on rumor-control and more educational resources.
------------------
Drop, Cover and Hold On - Standing in Doorways - Triangle of Life

After disasters, when interest in preparedness is high (and public trust is low) we find that misinformation, rumors and scams flourish. The bad news is that this can leave people confused and unable to make well-informed decisions to protect themselves, their families and their communities. The good news is that anyone can help sort through the growing collection of outdated, wrong or misleading information.

At CARD, we encourage alternative modes of learning and thinking, and we have found it valuable to question even the most widely accepted advice. Below are some of the concepts and conversations we share in CARD classes and presentations when asked about Drop, Cover and Hold On, standing in doorways, and "Triangle of Life."

Please note that this guidance was created for audiences in the United States. Building codes, construction materials, and the typical contents of buildings varies widely from country to country. Also note that the info below does not include the advice we give for people unable to physically do any of these actions.

About Drop, Cover and Hold On (DCH) … CARD recommends this method
*Drop* This is done as a conscious and controlled protective action. It is far better to place yourself gently on the floor, than to have the earthquake violently throw you to the ground.

*Cover* Taking cover under sturdy furniture provides some immediate protection from falling debris. Almost any item can be dangerous in an earthquake. Getting hit, cut or injured by objects and debris in your immediate environment is widely considered to be the most likely threat in an earthquake.

*Hold On* Earthquakes can come with violent, prolonged shaking. Holding on to sturdy furniture can help stop you from being tossed around. If you are not holding on, the furniture can move away during the shaking, leaving you without protection.

Having a safe place to hide under sturdy furniture can provide some protection in other emergency conditions. This would be true in some explosions, some fire situations, as well as in some domestic violence situations, shootings and home invasions. Some self-defense courses include advice on using sturdy furniture as a protective measure.

You can preposition simple supplies under sturdy furniture. At CARD, we recommend taping whistles, LED mini-flashlights or light sticks, and basic emergency instructions under sturdy furniture -- so that you'll have these supplies where you take cover.

About Standing in Doorways...CARD does NOT recommend this.
Standing in a doorway is unsafe during an earthquake. This practice is a perfect example of *outdated* information. When we lived in adobe structures for example, the wooden doorframe was often the most solid part of the structure, and we were told that this was the best place to be in an earthquake. With modern building codes, different construction standards, stronger materials, and lessons learned from many earthquakes, this advice is inappropriate.

Unfortunately, it takes time before we realize information is outdated, and there is often great resistance to change. It takes time, awareness and resources to develop new appropriate practices. New trainings must be created to teach new actions, and trainers must be trained to deliver the new information. Then the new, correct, information and trainings must be shared with the public.

One of the true challenges is that it is very hard for people to "unlearn" incorrect or outdated information. Many people tune-out advice once they think they already know the correct information. Others hear the "new" advice as an additional option, rather than an important life-saving correction, unless the instructor specifically states *why* the old information is no longer accurate.

Below are some of the other items we share in CARD conversations to help people unlearn standing in doorways as a protective measure.
--"Standing" anywhere during an earthquake is undesirable. Again, it is far better to put yourself quickly on the floor, than to have the earthquake throw you there.
--Doorways are often pathways to exits - so putting yourself directly in the path of scared people "running for safety" can be dangerous.
--Doorways often have doors in them. These doors tend to swing and slam with the movements of the earthquake. This increases chances of finger or facial injury if the door slams.
--During an earthquake, doorways (especially those leading to the outside) open into the unknown -- where unreinforced masonry, glass shards and other hazards are often found.

There are many reasons why we believe it's the safer choice to *Drop* to the ground, take *Cover* under sturdy furniture, and *Hold On *until the shaking stops. There are many reasons why standing in doorways is dangerous and undesirable.

About the "Triangle of Life"… CARD does NOT recommend this method. The method known as the "Triangle of Life" is mainly promoted by an individual named Doug Copp. He identifies himself as being with an organization called ARTI – American Rescue Team International. His method has been shared across the United States in the form of an email. The "Triangle of Life" email states that if you Drop, Cover and Hold On in an earthquake, you'll be crushed to death.

Item #5 in the email promoting this method advises: "If an earthquake happens while you are watching television and you cannot easily escape by getting out the door or window, then lie down and curl up in the fetal position next to a sofa or large chair." Copp maintains that by being in this position, you will be safe when the building collapses, because the furniture (since it is dense and will not compact much) will help create a triangle-shaped void, which he calls the "Triangle of Life."

Most all of the reputable disaster response and preparation agencies dispute this method. However, this fact is not what makes me reject it. After all, CARD embraces a method and message that differs greatly from the traditional approach. The arguments against the "Triangle of Life" are many, including:
--Thanks to enforced building codes and higher construction standards, the complete pancake collapse of the entire building is not the most likely threat we face from earthquakes in the United States. Complete pancake collapse is actually quite rare.
--The "Triangle of Life" positioning immediately exposes you to some of the most likely and most known threats, including being hit, cut, injured or killed by the contents of the room you are in -- when objects start moving violently in an earthquake.
--While "triangles" (what professional rescuers call 'void spaces' or 'life safe voids') are found AFTER the movement stops, it is not yet possible to determine where those voids will be BEFORE the movement starts. Furniture and other objects can move great distances in a major earthquake, sometimes all the way across the room. The fact that a void space is found near where an object landed AFTER the shaking stopped, does not mean its original location was a safe space for you to put your body BEFORE the movement started.

Last year I was teaching a class in Southern California and I met a woman who identified herself as being with ARTI. She promotes the "Triangle of Life" as the method to use in response to earthquakes. I asked her if she would tell me about the method from her perspective. We had a nice long conversation over the phone.

The complete, total, pancake collapse of structures is central to their belief and their argument for promoting the method. As I recall, reports indicate that *less than* 2.5% of all buildings damaged in the massive Kocaeli/Izmit earthquake (Turkey, August 1999, 7.4) suffered complete
pancake collapse. Even in heavily damaged buildings, most people were not killed -- approximately 1 in 20 overall. After hearing the explanation directly from a representative of ARTI, I am not at all moved to change my position.

Below are some links to what our traditional emergency response partners say about this issue and some of what has been posted about the controversy.

California OES response: http://www.cert-la.com/OES-Memo-on-DCH-Procedure.pdf

Earthquake Country: http://www.earthquakecountry.info/dropcoverholdon/

USGS: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/faq.php?categoryID=6&faqID=141

Articles about Doug Copp, the creator of the "Triangle of Life": http://www.abqjournal.com/terror/

Snopes Urban Legends Page: http://www.snopes.com/crime/warnings/triangle.asp

Rumors, scams, hoaxes and good old-fashioned wrong information about threats and personal safety issues are costly. Losses come in the form of lost productivity, wasted dollars, increased anxiety and diminished trust -- none of which can we afford. Here is the GREAT NEWS: Anyone can help stop outdated, incorrect or misleading information from hurting our community!

CARD suggestions:
1) Seize the Teachable Moment! Even ridiculous rumors and misinformation present an opportunity to educate and motivate your audiences about safety and preparedness. Seize every chance to provide the correct information, dispel rumors, and bust scams.

2) Create a 'Rumors' page on your website. Post information to stop incorrect information, scams and rumors from hurting your community. Send reminders to people to check the rumors page BEFORE they pass along suspicious information.

3) Post rumor-busting information in designated spaces, such as the snack area or mailroom bulletin board. Many people do not surf the web looking for this kind of information. At CARD, we are major promoters of Potty Poster Preparedness -- these posters are designed to share empowered safety and preparedness information with captive audiences, such as users of your restroom. Post information where people will read it.

4) Consider linking to sites such as http://www.snopes.com. Barbara and David Mikkelson maintain Snopes, and they debunk urban legends and rumors of many kinds. A quick visit to the site and you'll find many examples of safety and disaster related rumors, scams and misinformation. The "Triangle of Life" email is there, as well as many variations of 9/11 and Y2K fiction and falsehoods.

5) Search your own website and resources. Make sure you have removed any incorrect, outdated or misleading information. If you are using booklets or pamphlets or other resources that contain outdated or wrong information, consider creating correction stickers to place on the cover or over the incorrect advice.

6) If you have forwarded incorrect information, be super-zealous about retracting the wrong information and providing correct information in its place.

7) Help your audiences to be more empowered consumers and more astute readers. Some of the claims that float around are simply absurd. They get forwarded onward simply because it has some small grain of truth AND the person passed it on without thinking. Help people to think it through for themselves.

Ana-Marie Jones, Executive Director,
CARD - Collaborating Agencies Responding to Disasters
1736 Franklin Street, Suite 450, Oakland, CA 94612
510-451-3140 || Fax: 510-451-3144
www.FirstVictims.org

Helping Nonprofits Prepare to Prosper!

THE NEED FOR AN EVIDENCE-BASIS FOR EARTHQUAKE SURVIVAL TIPS

Thanks to Bogaziçi University, Kandilli Thanks to Bogaziçi University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute for these icons.
September 2006. Revised May 2008. This contribution is a rejoinder to Doug Copp's infamous "Triangle of Life" viral email. Read this, see snopes.com and google Doug Copp.

If you took the time to read Douglas Copp's "Earthquake Tips" advice and you thought it might have some merit, or if you passed it on to anyone else, please read this and pass this back up or down the lines. If you haven't, and just want a few good tips for earthquake safety you can skip all the way to #5 and #6.

#1 THE MYTH OF ANTICIPATING THE "TRIANGLE OF LIFE"

If Douglas Copp has gotten your attention about earthquake safety, I'd like to address some of the claims he makes that may have piqued your curiosity - because it's always good to hone our ability to think critically - and there are things you can and should do to be safer from earthquakes.

Yes, it is correct that there are places that after a building collapse are called "triangles of life". These "life safe voids" are the first places that search and rescue workers look for survivors. It's generally true that the larger the object and stronger the less it will compact. But don't be fooled. The force of earthquakes moves large and heavy objects. We don't know a) whether it is possible to anticipate where the life safe voids will be before the collapse, and b) whether it is possible to get there during the strong shaking of an earthquake. What we don't know in advance (but is worthy of research) is the expected collapse patterns in particular buildings or where these life safe voids will be when the shaking stops. If your building tilts in one direction, the "large and heavy object" that you are near, could crush you against the wall....

Douglas Copp maintains that "People inside of their vehicles are crushed when the road above falls in an earthquake and crushes their vehicles" and that in the Loma Prieta earthquake everyone killed would have survived if they had been able to get out of their cars and sit or lie next to them, because of the life-safe void nearby. This assertion is completely unscientific. Observing a crushed car with a life safe void next to it doesn't mean much. The car itself may have moved after the shaking started. There is a lot of evidence of cars and truck overturning in strong shaking. If everyone got out of their cars and got down next to them, a lot of people would be dead or seriously injured from the weight of the car jumping or sliding on top of them.

The evidence used for some of these tips are the so-called Turkish "experiment" that Douglas Copp says he was involved with. Unfortunately, unbeknownst to the others involved, this was not an experiment at all, but rather a voluntary organization's search and rescue exercise. My colleagues in Turkey corroborate that a building scheduled for demolition was used as a search and rescue training opportunity. They did decide to put the mannequins in different spots to see what would happen. And indeed they reported finding mannequins unharmed next to large and heavy objects.

What is the problem with this? Simply this: To collapse the building, they rammed the columns, causing the building to pancake. They did NOT simulate an earthquake. Earthquakes come in waves. They cause lateral shaking. They cause a variety of different kinds of damage. Since this experiment didn't produce anything resembling shaking it really doesn't tell us anything at all about what would happen during an earthquake. It could be that the large and heavy furniture would end up at the other end of the room, nowhere near where it began. Assuming even for a moment that an experiment could be done to support the hypothesis, the reality is that the particular results from a pancake collapse, while certainly the most fatal, represents the least common type of reinforced concrete building collapse. There are at least 4 other major types of collapse. Less than 3% of damaged buildings in the 1999 Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake were pancaked. So these results would tell us precious little about what might happen to people in all the other buildings... the other 97% of damaged buildings as well as the many undamaged buildings. Formulating the questions in order to advise EVERYONE about what to do when the shaking starts is much more complex than the evidence in front of one individual rescue worker's eyes.

#2. The "IF I CAN SAVE ONE LIFE" FALLACY.

Search and rescue workers desperately want to save lives. In reality, worldwide their experience is of bringing out at least 98 dead bodies to 2 live ones. Some would like to turn the one life they saved into a cautionary anecdote for the other millions of people who were potential victims. There is a place for these stories, but extrapolating to the millions is not scientific. It really doesn't matter if one or if ten people are found alive next to a refrigerator, unless you look at 100 or 1,000 refrigerators after an earthquake to see what might have happened to people who might have been near them at the time of the shaking. When you give advice to people about what to do during an earthquake, you are basically advising everyone who feels the shaking.

In Kocaeli we would have loved to be able to advise the 20,000 who died so that even a few lives could be saved. But remember that in order to save any of them, we would have to advise all 15,000,000 people who felt the shaking and were in a position to take some action. Suppose that our advice could save 1,000 people from death in pancaked buildings (highly unlikely) but if it also put .00007 percent of all the people who felt the shaking at risk of death and serious injury we would have done more harm than good. In other words, the behavior that may save someone in a particular collapsed building may put more people at more risk in other buildings.

When I show Californians pictures from Turkish publications with people crouched down next to refrigerators and kitchen counters, instead of under the nearby kitchen table, their jaws drop in horror. Obviously these people are in danger from the refrigerator sliding and toppling and emptying its contents, the hot things on the stove, the appliances on the counter and the packed contents of the cabinets overhead. Obviously they should be under the kitchen table, or outside the kitchen door. But this is exactly the lunacy that these kinds of "I found one person alive here" anecdotes can lead to. Some people in Turkey will die in the next earthquake because of this.

Please note that only a few lives have ever been saved by taking other actions (running out, jumping out of windows). Most people who will be killed by their buildings will never have a chance to do anything at all. The only solution to unsafe buildings is not to build them and not to occupy them. Retrofit those that can be made safe and tear down the rest.

Having said that, most of my scientific colleagues and I have come to the uneasy compromise that IF people are occupying a self-built adobe structure with a heavy roof, and with no seismic-resistant design measures, and if they are on the ground floor and can run out quickly to a safe and open place outside, they should do so when the shaking begins. Otherwise, they should still drop, cover and hold on. Adobe collapses are much more survivable when the roofing is of lightweight material. But the reality is that protection from earthquake deaths takes place way before the shaking begins. It will take a lot of well-designed research to learn if there is, in fact, ANY behavior that is better than luck in saving someone from a building collapse, and that can be guaranteed not to endanger more people than it helps! As with other helping efforts: "First, do no harm."

#3. OUTRAGEOUS ERRORS

Douglas Copp makes lots of outrageous claims for which there is no research, like "Everyone who simply "ducks and covers" WHEN BUILDINGS COLLAPSE is crushed to death -- Every time, without exception." "Everybody who gets under a doorway when buildings collapse is killed." At best these are extreme statements that are hypotheses to be tested. It would be great for search and rescue workers and social science researchers to get together to investigate hypotheses like these.

He also says "Get Near the Outer Walls Of Buildings Or Outside Of Them If Possible...because of the greater the probability that your escape route will be blocked." There is no evidence of this. A contrary hypothesis suggests that especially in concrete building with infill tile walls, the tiles fall out and so could you. This is also a good subject for research, but at present it's nothing more than an untested hypothesis.

Please understand that even the best scientific methods don't always provide perfect or even helpful results. Nevertheless, scientific methods should be used to investigate our hunches. There are many important questions that we haven't begun to answer - but absolute claims like this are just total rubbish and no substitute.

#4. HALF TRUTHS

Douglas Copp's Earthquake Tips recommends the "fetal position" in order to "survive in a smaller void". The idea of being small is fine. Getting down low prevents falling injuries, and making yourself a smaller target means there is less to be hit. However, when we tried this informally in Turkey on an earthquake simulation shake table, the "curled up in a ball" fetal position made us prone to rolling around. This didn't actually feel safe to us. What felt much safer was to get down as low as possible on our knees and shins so that we had some control over our movements and could still crawl to a more secure place.

Indications from research in Kocaeli is that the advice to get down "next to a sofa, next to a large bulky object that will compress slightly but leave a void next to it." is supported by a random sample of survivors in the most hard-hit areas. Many Kocaeli survivors would agree that this would have been both possible and safe in that earthquake. This is a good hypothesis that should be further investigated.

Also correct is the statemnent that "Wooden buildings are the safest type of construction to be in during an earthquake." They're also the worst in case of fire after an earthquake. So while those in wooden homes can take some comfort, be prepared to put out fires when they are still small with fire extinguishers and blankets.

However another piece of advice "If you are in bed during the night and an earthquake occurs, simply roll off the bed." is contradicted by scientific research findings. Actually, the safest people in earthquakes in both California and Turkey were those who stayed in bed. (Shoaf et. al, 2000. Petal 2004). If the building tilts and the bed moves. the foot of the bed may not be the best place to be.

Some observations may be accurate but the solutions highly impractical. For example, Copp's discovery that while crawling inside of collapsed newspaper offices and other offices with a lot of paper, that paper does not compact." Sure, large voids are found surrounding stacks of paper. This might be good information for the grocery store, but only if the shelves are bolted to the floor or ceiling. Frankly if you live in a building that you think is a collapse risk, ethically the only good advice is to suggest that you to find another place to live, rather than to rely on a pile of paper or a container of books in every room to save your life. This may seem pathetic, but at least 3 different publications in Turkey have photos of people crouching down next to enormous containers of paper products in the middle of their living rooms. Let's get real - our job is to live with earthquakes. This kind of advice makes the tasks of public education and preparedness harder than it already is.

The advice: "Never go to the stairs." is good.

#5. SO WHAT SHOULD YOU DO? AND WHY DO WE TEACH “DROP, COVER, AND HOLD ON”?

• Think through personal scenarios in the places you live and work. What spots seem safer than others?
• Make your environment safer by fastening tall and heavy furniture and audiovisual equipment,
• Move heavy objects down low.
• Keep shoes and flashlight in a plastic bag tied to the end of your bed
• During the shaking, drop down to the ground. Cover your head and neck. Hold on to your cover or something stable. In other words, “DROP, COVER and HOLD ON”.
• After the shaking stops, look around for anyone injured. Spend 2 seconds to survey the damage and exit the building carefully. DO NOT stay anywhere near a seriously damaged building or even garden wall – it may collapse in an aftershock.

Why do we persist in saying these things? What is the proof? Research into the causes of deaths and injuries in several countries has now shown several important patterns: a) Fatalities are almost always associated with head, neck and chest injuries. These are the most vulnerable areas of the body that need to be protected. b) Many injuries are caused by falling. If you get down yourself, or brace yourself, you can avoid falling. c) A huge proportion of night time injuries are to feet and legs... even in places with minor damage.... picture frame on floor, no shoes, no lights, parents/children trying to find each other in the dark.... d) At least half of all injuries are from non-structural objects. Many of these injuries are serious, made more so by the intense demand on limited medical resources. We can't be complacent about any unnecessary injuries when limited medical resources will be needed to save lives. e) The smaller target you present to falling objects the less chance there is of something hitting you.

#6. AND NOW THAT YOU'RE THINKING ABOUT IT...

Urban earthquake mitigation requires all of us to be involved in three major activities: assessment and planning, reducing our physical risks, and developing our ability to respond.

ASSESS & PLAN
(Think and act now.)
• Sit down with your family and discuss possible scenarios.
• Decide on meeting places inside and outside of your neighbourhood.
• Identify an "out-of-area contact" for quicker communication and peace of mind.
• Designate others nearby to pick up your child from school in case of emergency, and make a meeting plan with them.

PROTECT YOURSELF PHYSICALLY
(Take measures to reduce your physical risks.)
• If you aren't sure about the structural soundness of you home, workplace or school, have it assessed by a qualified engineer.
• Retrofit where possible. Move out, and tear down where not possible.
• Fasten large and heavy furniture.
• Secure water heaters.
• Have a fire extinguisher on each floor and have it serviced regularly.

DEVELOP YOUR ABILITY TO RESPOND
(Be ready to be part of the solution.)
• Have enough water, food, and prescription medications for a week.
• Keep a first aid kit.
• Check your "Go Bag" in your car and by your door.
• Learn first aid, fire suppression, wireless communication skills, and organizational skills for disaster response.

Disaster preparedness is not accomplished overnight. It takes place in a series of small steps taken at home, at work, at school, in your neighborhood and in your region. It is accomplished by actions by individuals, families, organizations, institutions, and government.

Reflecting on the most recent tragic earthquake, and the grief felt by survivors should lead us all to wonder what we can do to avoid such needless destruction. This is a good time to make yourself a promise, and take one of these small steps today.